Calgary Housing Forecast 2026: Balance and Stability Ahead

Calgary's housing market, shifted from a seller’s market to more balanced conditions as supply in new homes, rentals, and resale properties increased. This shift coincided with a return to more typical demand levels, primarily due to slower migration. As a result, price pressure eased, particularly in apartment and row home segments, which saw the largest supply increases. This stabilization in prices helped balance the market, although broader economic factors such as migration and employment trends continued to influence housing dynamics.

Looking ahead to 2026, supply levels for higher-density homes are expected to remain high due to the completion of 2025's record-high new home starts. However, the rise in inventory is likely to cool new home starts in 2026, easing supply pressures. Demand for housing is expected to remain in line with long-term trends, with previous population and job growth sustaining sales. However, with migration slowing and employment growth softening, no significant uptick in housing demand is anticipated, pointing to a more stable market without major price increases.

The recent MOU regarding pipeline development and regulatory shifts offers long-term economic upside for Alberta, but these changes are unlikely to affect the housing market in 2026, especially given the weaker energy price environment. While sectors like tech, food processing, and petrochemicals may provide economic growth, slower migration and high living costs will continue to limit housing demand. Elevated supply in the market combined with stable demand will likely keep conditions balanced, but this may extend the time needed to absorb the current inventory of resale properties.

Calgary's housing market in 2026 will likely remain in a buyer’s market, especially in the apartment and row home segments, where the supply increase could put downward pressure on prices. Detached and semi-detached homes are expected to see more stability in pricing, but overall residential prices are expected to ease slightly. Buyers will likely have more negotiating power, especially in denser housing types. Although price declines are expected in specific segments, the overall market will likely experience only moderate price reductions.

In 2025, Alberta's resource-driven economy outperformed expectations, but migration levels slowed as employment growth in Calgary faltered. With slower job growth, high unemployment, and a reduction in migration, housing demand is expected to decrease in 2026. While some sectors like healthcare and government will continue to see growth, overall employment gains will be limited, keeping demand in check. This shift in migration and employment will result in more balanced housing market conditions, consistent with long-term trends, and reduce the previous price volatility seen in recent years.