January 2026: Market Slows, but Hope Remains

National home sales in January 2026 saw a significant month-over-month decline, largely due to the impact of severe winter weather in regions like the Greater Golden Horseshoe and Southwestern Ontario. The market slowdown seems more attributable to these weather disruptions than any fundamental shift in demand. Experts are still optimistic for the year ahead, believing that pent-up demand, particularly from first-time buyers, will drive market activity once conditions stabilize.

Overall, national home sales fell by 5.8% compared to December 2025, and were 16.2% lower than the same time last year. Despite the slowdown in sales, the number of newly listed properties rose by 7.3%, indicating that sellers were eager to re-enter the market. The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) also experienced a month-over-month decline of 0.9%, and was down 4.9% compared to January 2025. The national average sale price dipped by 2.6% year-over-year.

A surge in new listings was seen across many regions, with notable increases in Montreal, Quebec City, Calgary, Greater Vancouver, and Victoria. However, Central and Southwestern Ontario were less active, likely due to the winter storm's effects on both supply and demand. This seasonal fluctuation reinforced the idea that local weather conditions can have a significant impact on the housing market during the colder months.

The sales-to-new-listings ratio for January dropped to 45%, down from 51.3% at the close of 2025. This shift signals a move toward more balanced market conditions, with the long-term average for this ratio being 54.8%. A balanced market generally falls within a ratio range of 45% to 65%, suggesting that the housing market is moving away from the more competitive conditions seen in previous months. The total inventory of homes for sale at the end of January stood at 140,680, a 4.5% increase from the previous year, but still 11.4% below the long-term average for this time of year.

Regionally, the performance of home prices varied. While prices in British Columbia, Alberta, and Ontario remained lower compared to the previous year, some other provinces saw gains. The largest year-over-year declines were observed in Hamilton-Burlington and Oakville-Milton, while Sudbury, Quebec City, and St. John’s, Newfoundland, experienced double-digit price increases. The national average home price in January 2026 was $652,941, marking a 2.6% decrease compared to January 2025, reflecting the overall cooling of the market from the previous year.