A Buying Opportunity in Canada’s Housing Market

Canada’s housing market is expected to remain relatively quiet for the rest of the year, creating what some analysts describe as a favorable period for buyers before activity begins to increase again. While home sales are projected to stay subdued in the near term, price growth is expected to gradually accelerate in 2027 as market conditions improve.

Home prices have declined in several of Canada’s largest markets throughout much of the year. In the Greater Toronto Area, benchmark home prices were down 5.4 per cent in June compared with the same month last year, falling to $940,800. In British Columbia, the average home price declined 1.2 per cent in May to $947,859. Although sales are expected to improve in Ontario and British Columbia during the second half of the year, much of that increase reflects a recovery from a weaker-than-anticipated first half.

Improving affordability and a narrowing gap between buyer and seller price expectations are expected to support a gradual increase in market activity. Even so, housing sales are forecast to remain below their 10-year averages in both Ontario and British Columbia throughout next year. Home prices in both provinces are expected to return to positive growth in 2027, with British Columbia potentially recovering more quickly due to stronger performance in the luxury housing segment.

Across Canada, the average home price increased by 1.5 per cent over the month, reaching $702,079. Despite this monthly gain, national home prices are still expected to decline by approximately 0.3 per cent over the course of the year, reflecting ongoing weakness in overall market conditions.

Although home sales are projected to post modest gains, overall transaction volumes are expected to remain relatively low. Sales are not anticipated to return to pre-pandemic levels until the second half of 2027, with slower population growth and moderate hiring limiting demand. In Alberta, where the housing market has remained comparatively strong, home prices have risen 2.5 per cent so far in 2026. However, only modest price growth is expected for the remainder of the year, representing a more cautious outlook than previously forecast.